Saturday, August 30, 2008

Biochar yahoo group


Click to join biochar

Click to join biochar


Joined the biochar yahoo group today.

Thanks Erich

Friday, August 29, 2008

We have wind?

I'm a bit skeptical but adding 2 sites to the Kentucky MESONET network is something to pursue even if we don't find that we have a good wind resources this far north.

Thanks for mentioning it Seth.

PickensPlan


View my page on PickensPlan

So I've joined PickensPlan...

What does the PickenPlan mean to Northern Kentucky?

We have very little in the way of local Wind Power, but, if coal continues it's recent rise in price it may become economical to import Wind power to the area. In a battle between remote Wind and remote coal, Wind wins. Either way our high 90% local reliance on coal is drawing to a close. Even though we are not an ideal place for solar it may become cost competitive with remote Wind. It will even make the spare energy from Biochar attractive.

On the natural gas part of the plan. We have local understanding of it. We had gaslight streets before electric was common. Many of us still use it to heat our homes. The fact that we burn it on the inside of our houses venting the exhaust to the open air outside demonstrates how clean it is. It's not as clean as solar or wind but it beats coal, wood, and gasoline hands down for clean.

"Since I have natural gas in the house would I be filling up at home?" If you really want to, yes. But the cost of installation of the pump may not be worth it. However even though to my knowledge we have not one natural gas filling station in the area they can be set up quickly since the gas pipes run just about everywhere in the area.

Now this means that we have a new competitor for the natural gas that heats our home and water. Until the last couple of years using natural gas for home and water heating has been the cheap way. A combination of the world using more of it and a many new natural gas plants increased the price. If our energy hungry cars start eating the supply I would assume that we will not return to a time where natural gas is cheaper than electric. Also considering that electric is being squeezed by coal prices and pollution policies it looks like many more of us will be looking into passive solar heating.

This will make local biochar more valuable as the syngas produced in it's creation is being used by the local utility and may function in natural gas vehicles as well.

Either way the time when these decisions will need to be addressed will be within the next few years.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

College Sun

Asked about solar at the local university. The local power company offers net metering for up to 15kw. A few parking garages went up over the last year or so on campus. Possibly an opportunity for solar on them. The stats for a 1.92kw system on a roof at a local zoo.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Peak Coal

We are far from hitting peak coal there are plenty of reserves.

HOWEVER

The spot prices for coal have gone up by well over 150% depending on where you draw your baseline.

"OMG! We use almost all coal here! My bill is going to go up by 150%!"

No.

Energy companies negotiated contacts for multiple years.
They normally get better than spot prices especially when the price has not been high for multiple years.
Only a part of their costs come from purchasing the fuel.
That 150% is only for Appalachia (yes our local coal).

HOWEVER

I am going to make several generous assumptions.

1) Buying coal is 20% of all the costs for getting power to you.
2) The contracts are five years in length. 20% of them will expire.
3) The energy company can get a price that only represents 20% of the 150% in this short coal price peak.

150% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 1.2%

"Great no problem!"

No.

These are generous assumptions and we will not know until the energy company asks for an increase (which takes a long time to get).

And...

There is normal inflation of everything from employees, to vehicle fuel, to steel. The price of coal is guessed to fall way off of this peak (as China and everyone else uses more). So, really this is the absolute lowest increase.

That's the first year.

Let's say they can keep getting that same price.

Year 1: 1.2%
Year 2: 2.4% (Q: Why? A: One of those 20% above has changed to 40% since another year of contracts expired.
Year 3: 3.6%
Year 4: 4.8%
Year 5: 6%

Let's run another scenario...

1) Buying coal is 25% of all the costs for getting power to you.
2) The contracts are three years in length. 33% of them will expire.
3) The energy company can get a price that only represents 50% of the 150% in this short coal price peak. (That is like getting something at "40% off", how often does that even happen?)

150% * 25% * 33% * 50% = 6+%

Year 1: 0% (The year is spent in filing, lawsuits and media coverage)
Year 2: 6+%
Year 3: 12+%
Year 4+: 18+% (only three years worth of contracts)

Again even this is assuming that
1) Coal stabilizes at 70% of it's current price (this may get better)
2) CO2 legislation does not add costs
3) No other costs (employees, vehicles, inflation)

My recommendation is to update shelved renewable projects plans with an extra 0%/6%/12%/18% assumption of energy costs and look at the pay back period.

By the time you go though the process of planning, approval, bidding and actually paying someone for your renewable project you will have harder evidence of what the actual "coal" costs will be.

HOWEVER

There is coal from other regions that is cheaper. Now getting tons of coal remotely. Possibly it would be better to burn it there and just send the electric? Maybe getting wind and solar from afar will come into fashion.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Ask an expert

Decided to ask local expertise what their thoughts are on the best solar for NKY.

Will Biochar work here?

Asked for advice how to start investigating Biochar from the local cooperative extension.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Biochar

For purposes of this discussion Biochar is a type of charcoal that when added to soil can promote plant growth in many ways. It remains in the soil for many years.



Normal burning (with oxygen) produces CO2. Natural decay of plants releases CO2 slowly (but if your composting at least you get something out of it). Pyrolysis (making biochar/heating in the absence of oxygen) release significantly less CO2, dramatically decreases slow CO2 releases, and provides additional benefits when added to soil.



You could go out get a metal barrel and make your own. This is a alternative if the smoke and soot generated will not bother the neighbours.



There are several more complicated methods of Pyrolysis.



Locally we need to find and select and select a process that balances:


  • low emissions (no soot or toxins)

  • favors biochar over syngas and bio-oil

  • is flexible for highly varying inputs

Any extra syngas and bio-oil needs to be used. A possible interested party would be Duke Energy who has experience with syngas and has an oil generator locally.


Local sources of biomass:

This change should be compared to the current composting of biomass performed locally by Rumpke (who also has experience in selling syngas)

Suggestions

Now one cannot just run out and build a power plant, build a refinery, get utilities rate changes. All that is handled though the KYPublic Service Commission. Among the many things mentioned in the Electric Utility Regulation and Energy Policy in Kentucky are some passing statements mentioning that they are on a wait-and-see strategy on carbon issues. Basically it is a national issue and you can't really react before the federal regulations change. Those regulation will most likely change next year regardless of the presidential outcome.

So until then....

Renewable and Conservation Industry Property Tax Abatement

The local counties should consider property tax abatements for companies involved in energy conservation and renewable energy to attract new companies to the area. Consideration should be given existing companies as well. The structure of this has to be well thought out since many companies that provide these services are involved in other things outside the scope of the purposed abatement. These industries should provide years of local employment as the carbon issue causes additional regulations.

Local investigation of renewables

  • How well would biochar work in local soils?
  • What are the outputs (emissions, energy, waste) of flash pyrolysis?
  • Are thin film solar a better option this far north?

Federal (much of which will have to wait for the next administration)

  • What is the cap and trade plan?
  • Provide an analysis of transporting wind energy to this region as compared to local solar. (A comparison to coal can be made with existing data)
  • What is the plan for sub critical reactors to the ton years of waste.
  • Please continue to support fusion.
  • Consider aiding in the planning of renewables in countries with lowest per capita CO2 emissions.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Local Situation

This region is a major importer of energy. The majority of electrical energy is derived from coal. The majority of transportation is derived from oil. What heating isn't done with electric is done with natural gas.

We also have little in the way of local resources.

For fossil sources...
  • The coal is shipped in from hundreds of miles away.
  • The natural gas is pipped in also from miles away. (There is some landfill gas used locally)
  • The liquid fossil fuels are also delivered and/or piped in.
For renewable resources...
  • The 1% from hyrdoelectric is about as much as we will get. Even though we are near a major river damming to a point of usefulness would make the region a lake with a few islands.
  • For large geothermal the local thickness of earth's crust will make this one of the last places to be able to take advantage of this. (Although heat pumps make as much if not more sense here as anywhere else)
  • The available wind energy is also low. It's not just the fuels we use that causes the air quality problems here. It's the lack of wind refreshing the local valleys.
  • The sun does shine here on a regular basis but we are fairly far north which reduces the amount we receive (Although solar water heating makes sense here)
  • On the biomass/biofuels this has always been a good farming region so all of those solutions apply here.

The local priority is:

  1. energy conservation (heat pumps , solar water heating , better lighting and insulation)
  2. biomass/biofuels (biochar being on the top of that list)
  3. solar (thin film solutions are active at lower light levels)
  4. coal (since we can't stop using it anytime soon. IGCC may be a option until we can)
  5. nuclear (unlikely given we have none locally now and past local experience has been negative. But that aside sub critical reactors are worth exploration.)

The need for continued support of research is a given which is why it's not on the list. The list would not exist without research.

How

Limiting this to my opinions would not get very much actually done.

The plan is to:
  • seek more insight from education institutions, businesses, and government
  • active request plans be made by education institutions, businesses, and government
  • document this journey here so that you can join me locally or use it as an example to act in your region

Why

As mentioned already...

The carbon issue gets a little stronger each day and regardless of who wins the presidential election both have mentioned cap and trade systems.

In addition by my estimate 98% of our energy locally comes from coal.

So (as mentioned before)...

Even if you do not believe that greenhouse gases cause global warming you can at least admit that economic activities that depend on high greenhouse gas emissions are at risk due to a global consensus on this issue.

In other words...

The rest of the nation and/or world will in very short order cause this to become a bigger issue locally. The thing to do is to either give into the change and begin to change locally or fight the change. If you want to fight the change fell free. I will be going with the flow so that in case you fail we won't be unprepared.

On a personal note...

The "Why" for me is to stop just complaining and commenting and actually get some action going.

Where

Northern Kentucky (NKY) since:

This is not to say that global, national, and Greater Cincinnati topics will not be discussed. Northern Kentucky is just the right size to focus on and the right place since it's where I am from.

When

Now ... sort of

The local coal plants and farms existed before I did. Those along with economic factors cannot be changed without careful thought and sustained effort.

The carbon issue gets a little stonger each day and regardless of who wins the presidential election both have mentioned cap and trade systems.

What

Carbon ...

Specifically avoiding some of the addition to carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere by promoting techniques such as Biochar, IGCC, and Subcritical reactors.

There is of course other greenhouse gasses and much debate about global warming. Even if you do not believe that greenhouse gases cause global warming you can at least admit that economic activities that depend on high greenhouse gas emissions are at risk due to a global consensus on this issue and that change in these areas cannot happen overnight.

There are also many other societal issues that are just as if not more important that this. I will leave those issues to others and concentrate on this one.

Who

I'm a middle aged computer information systems professional.

Q: What expertise does this give me to comment on the issues I do?
A: None. I am a hobbyist on these issues. Some people know professional athletic statics and strategies where as I like to read up and discuss these issues. As such I'm not affiliated with any agency public or private.

As far as politics I'm a independent moderate. If I had to choose you could put me down as a "practical liberal" rather than a compassionate conservative. Government is like a strong spice. For some dishes it should be used with vigor. In others it should be used but only sparingly. And for most it has no business at all.

I am also not asking for donations of any type. If you like what I write donate to what I use.

Who, What, When, Where, Why and How

Rather than jumping in with a bunch of random ideas things will begin with a little organization. Let's see how long I stick with this.

Who
What
When
Where
Why
How