German Clean Coal

Electric Vechicles? 2041?

Why 2041? Three places to look.

In a Newsweek article there was mention of batteries improving 8% per year.

In a wiki supercaptior article : "For comparison, a conventional lead-acid battery is typically 30 to 40 W·h/kg and modern lithium-ion batteries are about 120 W·h/kg. In automobile applications gasoline has a net calorific value (NCV) of around 12,000 W·h/kg, which operates at 20% tank-to-wheel efficiency giving an effective energy density of 2,400 W·h/kg."

That means we need something about 20 times better than lithium-ion batteries.
At 8% it take about 40 years to get 20 times better.

Using the wiki lithium-ion article Litihium-ion was proposed in the 1970s and the first commercial version was made in 1991.

Adding 40 years to that gives you "miracle battery/capacitor" was proposed in 2010s and the first commercial version was made in 2041.

Things could happen quicker or slower but it represents the leap we have to take to get there. This is where hybrids and smaller vehicles fill the gap.

Also remember when someone is saying replace transport fuels with electric you have to consider what is being replaced. If you replace gasoline with a all electric vehicle run off coal, coal only has to provide 20% of the energy the gasoline did. Adding in electric transmission loss and electric engine loss use about 25%.

In the future where hybrids are the majority the comparison may be 40% tank-to-wheel efficiency which would make the coal need to provide 45% of gasoline. At that point you begin to get into the area where there is more CO2 generated by the coal. Then again cars will never have a on-board method of capturing CO2 where with coal it is possible.

Appalachian Coalfields Climate Change Forum

Accc dropped by. Great site to keep informed.

Using Accc was able to find:

Two articles (1, 2)on how Kentucky's coal exporting. The thing that one must be remember in the future that extra mining safety and environmental requirements will no longer be an argument of raising coal prices. Now foreign interests will be getting the benefits of putting Kentucky at risk while raising prices more than safety and environmentalism alone.

An article about our own Duke Energy. After reading this if cap and trade gives out carbon credits to "non-emitters" like nuclear plants Kentucky may want to consider a surtax on tonnes of coal going to any state advantaged by the regulation.

Also Sustainable Kentucky has much orginal material and good set of link. It's worth a visit and a RSS.

Coal-to-Gas in Kentucky

In Kentucky's energy plan there is a disconnect between Coal-to-Gas and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC).

It seems that the plan calls for separate Coal-to-Gas facilities.

To be clear the residential price for natural gas is just now falling from it's peak of $20 per thousand cubic feet. However the general increase in the price of natural gas is not guaranteed. It is possible that national natural gas available will rise with the use of domestic Shale Gas and other "unconventional" sources.

We are caught in a situation were future natural gas prices will either dramatically increase or dramatically decrease.

In this regard would it not be better to move efforts into separate Coal-to-Gas facilities into IGCC power plants instead.

Here is the reasoning. Natural Gas is needed more in the winter when electricity demand is low. Electricity is needed more in the summer when natural gas demand is low. An IGCC and Coal-to-Gas both produce syngas. Wouldn't a plant that can switch between electric production and syngas production be a way to hedge the bet on where natural gas prices may go?

A more aggressive plan on replacing existing coal boilers with IGCC with full CCS capabilities would eliminate trying to fit CCS onto the older boilers.

No to CTL

In Kentucky's energy plan Strategy 4 is "Develop a Coal-to-Liquids Industry in Kentucky to Replace Petroleum-Based Liquids".

The reasoning behind this is:

1) Demand for coal will be reduced as a result of climate change regulation causing a collapse of the Kentucky coal industry. There is no indication that this will occur in the near future. The spot prices for Central Applachchia coal (CAP) went from $40 per short Ton in early 2007 to $140 before the economic collapse of 2008. Asia and India continue import coal from the region during the collapse.

2) It will be economically viable if oil is $50 or $60 a barrel. However, those estimates are based on less than $40 per short ton coal which does not, has not, and will not exist.

3) We need to get away from foreign oil. This is true however efforts should be focused on other alternatives such as biomass and electric.

They did recognize in the report that any CTL facility needs to have total carbon sequestration or move Kentucky in the wrong direction for emission.

The present temporary situation with coal having only fell to $110 and oil below $40 shows how out of line CTL profits could go.

This is not to say research should not be done on CTL however state support of new CTL facilities should not occur until it is clear that the world is using less of our coal. And even then it must be done with some guarantee of the input price of the coal and the output price of the fuel along with total carbon sequestering.

With a report as detailed as this one it would be impossible not to say something negative about it. I am not against the plan just the CTL part of it. I am also not totally against CTL, it is just an option who's time has not come and may not come. We need to refocus onto other things in and out of the plan.

Kentucky Energy Plan

You can access the plan here or on Kentucky Department for Energy Development and Independence site

S. 1884 Harvesting Energy Act of 2007

A biochar based summary is available here from IBI.

opencongress.org provides the ability to create a widget from any US bill. A widget for S. 1884 is at the bottom this blog now.

Kentucky Electric Vechicles

Transportation Secretary signs order to permit registration, titling of alternative electric vehicles

You will be able to get a fully electric vechicle registered soon but "Their operation is restricted to roadways with posted speed limits of no more than 45 mph, of which Kentucky has 3,507 miles."

This is different than hybrids that have been fully street legal nationally and future all electric vechicles that will be nationally street legal from major car companies.

Repower America

www.repoweramerica.org has two intesting features.

You can look to see what people near you are saying. For example

"Using 98% coal here we need to change more quickly than the rest of the nation in order to remain competitive. It's not just the right thing to do, it's survival"

They also have a way to send a letter to your editor of your local newpaper. For example:

"The election has passed and regardless of which canidate was put in place they both proposed cap and trade system for carbon.

Here in Northen Kentucky (and it equally applies to Greater Cincinati) we use over 90% of our electricy is dervied from coal we pay 33% for electricy than the nation on average. The nation is no longer going to allow us to function in this way so cheaply. We need to act and prepare to act quickly.

Duke, environmentalists, and business all agreee conservation is the best, cheapest, and fastest alternative. This does not mean we have to sacrifice. We have to do and think of ways to do things differently.

Duke Energy is considering several things to get us though. One of which is "smart meters" which allow for time of day charges like your mobile phone. In the summer some peak usage is driven by our air conditioners left on while we are at work. Time of day billing will make us more aware and possibly save us money personally by driving personal usage off peak.

Geo-HVAC is a way to save on heating and cooling. It involves putting piping into the ground to use the earth's tempature. There are not many companies that support it locally. What if a local county would cover the cost of the installing the ground oart of the work? This would stimulate more use of the technology. You could call your house Geo-ready. Face it. When do you replace a air conditioner or heater normally? When it breaks. It's much faster to put an regular unit on. Doing the ground work first gets you ready for when you have to switch. Some existing units can be switched over to geo and still be under warranty.

Our area is unique with unique challeges and opportunities including things like biochar.

Kentucky Joins The Climate Registry

Kentucky announced that it has joined The Climate Registry.

Obama

I try to keep poltics out of this blog to focus on the issues at hand. If you noticed I mentioned regardless of who wins the presidential election both have mentioned cap and trade systems.

The president elect has a site to give input. I would have given the same input to either victor. Here is my submission:

Troops: Bringing the troops home safely after a successful conclusion to the wars and supporting their needs upon their return in recognition of their ability to endure the challenges they have faced and will face is the highest priority.

Global Finance: The stability of the global financial system along with regulatory adjustments to keep it stable is the next priority.

I don’t have any specific suggestions on those two items other than…

Buy steel: Global steel prices have retreated but they won’t stay low for long. There is a lot of infrastructure work ahead with plans already drawn up. Get the steel for the projects and have the projects store them now. That will save money in the long run. Getting full funding for projects so they can start should be a separate issue. This can be applied to other commodities as well. This saves money in the long run and boosts the economy.

Gasoline Disincentive: High gas prices ($4) are painful but low gas prices ($2) feed our addiction. Gasoline needs an increased tax when it is cheap to allow its replacement. The increase tax should fade when the price increases. Automatically doubling the federal tax when the yearly average is under $3 may be the way to go. It provides new revenue and declares an end to cheap gas that makes alternatives suffer. We saw the real suffer of not having alternatives when the market went over $4.

Biochar: There is some evidence that placing wood based charcoal into the soil increases productivity. The productivity lasts for multiple years and since charcoal is made out of carbon the carbon is sequestered for multiple years. The process of creating biochar produces usable energy, syngas, and other products in varying amounts. Biochar use could provide a combination of agricultural productivity, carbon sequestering, and energy. Every soil and crop in different. Every institution that supports agricultural research should be directed and supported to look into this. It won’t solve anyone problem totally but it’s something that can provide three partial solutions at once.

Northern Kentucky Carbon: We are energy challenged. 98% of our electricity comes from coal. We pay more than 30% less for electric than the national average. Local wind power will not have an impact. Remote wind power will most likely be used to supplant fossil in other places with none left for here. Geothermal will be common on the east coast before it comes here (the earth’s crust is thickest here; geo-hvac is an option though). There is no remaining usable hydro (unless we make the region into a great lake and live in boats upon it). This is also not an ideal place for solar (but out of alternatives solar leads, and solar water heating works well). Considering all that conservation, limited solar, and limited biomass are the only cards we have to get away from coal. When constructing national policy please use us as a case study. The nation needs to change its carbon footprint and we are one of the largest toes. Policies that make sense nationally have the potential to either lean us towards nuclear (which we have negative local memory (Fernald,Zimmer) or it will depopulate the region. Basically we are a region with little local energy, even the coal is barged in from hundreds of miles away.

Biochar

Some paraphrased comments made on the biochar yahoo group relaying our local situtation.

Even though biochar may produce less energy than turning all biomass to ash, it should be pursued since it may have long term benifit in our loam soils.

Details...


> We have to stop burning coal!
Our electricity is 98% coal here.

> We have to find another resource for the energy.

> hydrology power
The local source has been tapped. It provides 1%. While we are at the confluence of two rivers damming them for power would flood the region (which would take care of our energy problem). Also a series of locks was put in decades ago so the river is more a seris of lakes as it is that only rarely has large movement (while the rivers
are wide before the locks one could wade acrossed the river except in spring).

> wind
There is little harvestible wind. In fact locally I would be oppossed to wind. We live in one of those valleys that does not get much fresh air. While our modern activities cause pollution even before that time we had an issue with pollen. Mark Twain was quoted as something to the effect that people in Cincinnati were disgusting .. they spit all the time. An effect of the pollen. (He also said "When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Cincinnati because it's always twenty years behind the times.")

> Nuclear power
Bad memories.
I think we have the only nuclear plant that was converted to a coal
plant.

And then there was dear Fernald...

While it is unrelated we have low levels of radon also which is subconsciously attributed to the above two things.

However these nifty mini-generators might be acceptable locally.


> geothermal
The earth crust is extremely thick here and cool to a great depth.
The east coast of the USA will have Geothermal before we do and that is a long way off.

However geo heating of homes works well here. It just needs to be used more. But it more often replaces natural gas and not electric.

> solar electric (photovoltaic)
Also not a real great place for solar but out of all the non-waste alternatives that could be built widely this one would be the leader here. I have hope that some of the newer cheaper flexible solar design that our out will be a good match here. They aren't as efficient as the hard silicon light but they cut in in lower light.

> solar thermal
This works well here. We need to do more of it. Again it replaces more natural gas than coal.

> Conservation
Would you be surprised that this is on TOP of Duke Energy's list?

Also Carsharing may help here as well.

> biomass energy conversion
While we don't have alot of biomass available locally this is my interest in biochar here.


> We could set the price paid for carbon emissions so high that it
drives coal-fired power industry out of business, because it won't compete any longer against the other carbonless forms of energy.

You've hit upon the key as to why I felt the need to start this NKY Carbon thing and my interest in biochar and any solution. Change is coming. Both presidential canditates support cap-and-trade. We have some of the lowest electric rates and we import all of out energy (the coal comes by river, the natural gas and gasoline is
pipelined in)

> [8] As a temporary alternative to coal E&S, biochar from agricultural wastes can be used right now to achieve a net gain in carbon capture and storage, as compared with business as usual, in the course of which these wastes are usually burned. Also denuded forest areas can be replanted. And so on.

> So for existing coal-fired operations for the time being, I would require only a significant reduction in emissions and compensating activities off site for the balance, until we get the technological breakthroughs to make retrofits economically feasible.

Duke is current experimenting with:
- CO2 injection to the saline auqifer
- algea from flue gas
- they want to replace the oldest coal plant with a IGCC system
- their alliance to get biomass burning facilities desinged has been
mentioned in this group

co2now.org widget

Added a the small widget from co2now.org . A larger one appears below.

Biochar

Posted the following to the Biochar group.

To touch on a few a few comments made in various threads it’s best to put things into a local context as solutions vary widely from place to place.

I’m in Northern Kentucky

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Kentucky


Specifically Campbell County

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_County,_Kentucky

We range from urban at the north, to suburban in the middle, to rural in the south.

For inputs we have at least yard waste and Bush Honeysuckle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_Honeysuckle

Bush Honeysuckle is an envasive species introduced over a century ago. While it’s advance is slow it has reached critical mass in the region. If you disturb 10 square meters of soil the birds will give at least one sprout within a year. Within 5 years the entire 10 square meters will be a mature honeysuckle. If cut to the ground each year thereafter it will grow back for years until it exhausts it’s resources.

“biomass input does not have to be trees” – The bush honeysuckle is a woody shrub. To use it UNsustainably would be a challenge and a goal. Stands of it could be thinned to allow other things like our endangered plants to grow in it’s shade. The roots would be left as they are needed to hold the soil in place until something else holds it.

Current alternatives to biochar are composting and landfilling with extensive landfill gas capture. One contributes to soil and the other produces energy. Neither does both.

“Carbon Credits” – We are in the carbon lawless west. “Kyoto? Is that the new SUV with the hot tub in the back?” Any carbon credit system operating now is voluntary. However regulation is coming soon.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=carbon-dioxide-auction

Both presidential candidates have stated they will do some kind of “cap and trade” arrangement.

The thing one has to remember about regulations is that they are limited to how they are written. If “cap and trade” regulates direct CO2 emissions only than capturing it in any form and sending into any non-regulated process avoids the emission. For example, creating Algae oil puts the carbon into the Algae which get turned into transport fuel which get emitted in an unregulated way (vehicles).

A law may contain certain kinds of inputs as being “Carbon Neutral” which would encourage conversion of biomass all the way down to ash to release all of it’s energy. It would be very hard to compete if the only value was not having an ash pit.

As far as energy output either the syngas would be used directly or electric generated from it. Since the electric peak is high in the summer afternoons which is the same time of year that biomass peaks that would probably be the target. Also peaking power is much more expensive than baseline power here since our baseline is coal.

If biochar doesn’t help well in the local soils then it could be used at the sewage plant possibly.

Google - Clean Energy 2030

Commented on Google's Clean Energy 2030 plan.

Solar Tour

The 2008 Solar Tour is this weekend Friday-Sunday, October 3-5, 2008

Cap and Trade is coming

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=carbon-dioxide-auction

Carbon Dioxide Auction Launches U.S. Effort to Combat Climate Change

First steps

Contacted Charcoalab to see if kits were available.

As normal as it gets

It must be over since the top energy story is the utility paying of business to drop opposition to a rate hike.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080924/NEWS01/309240010

Ike - Day 8

Can you imagine 8 days without power?

So considering that generators are on the minds of many.

Wouldn't it be great if a hybrid or fully electric vehicle was capable of plugging a major appliance into?

Ike - Day 5

Most kids are back in school.

Something I forgot to mention. On day 1 while the power was out on a place I was visiting the cable company rolled in with a generator. They kept it going night and day until the power was restored there on Day 3. What was the generator for? To keep the cable phone service up so that 911 could be used. 1 point for keeping things together. Minus 10 points for "paying someone for sitting on top of a generator for three days" being your disaster plan to ensure 911 service.

Again we have to remember that our experience is like having an 18 wheeler blow by and knock your hat off where what happened where the real Ike actually hit is like being hit by said 18 wheeler.

yIKEs it's Ike!

The remnants of Hurricane IKE have certainly reminded us how fragile our energy infrastructure is and how much we depend upon it.

It is now day three and still over half a million customers are without power. This is the point where food in freezers that were closed the entire time start to thaw. The few hours it takes for a refrigerator to rot passed days ago. People who use electric water heating instead of natural gas were on cold showers after the first day (Don't you wish you has a solar water heater about now). Early on the few restaurants with power had very long lines and waits. Most schools have been closed for two days now (the first day being a weekend).

The gasoline prices seem uniformly set at $4.15. Six of the Eight gasoline stations that I happened by were without power. Gasoline stations with no power cannot pump gas unless they are using a power generator (I've never seen a gasoline station with a generator). A local shell station sold out of it's regular unleaded then reduced it's price of super and premium to $4.15 and then ran out everything by the afternoon. Even with people running generators, in general there is still gasoline available.

As the power start to come on things are getting back to normal. Hopefully people will not forget the experience.

While the damage where the true hurricane hit is more severe and deserves more attention this small challenge shows what a hours of simple stiff winds can do the things you depend on.

Pickens Update

View my page on PickensPlan

Comments on the plan

Natural Gas

The plan is short term in nature, using wind and natural gas to solve the problem isn't ideal but it should help. Pickens stands to make some profit on it.

http://www.energypublisher.com/article.asp?id=11918"U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased 3 percent in 2006, rising to over 211 trillion cubic feet, the highest level since 1976 according the Energy Information Administration. ""This was the eighth year in a row that U.S. natural gas proved reserves have increased."I assume we import because natural gas usage spikes in winter. Driving spikes in summer. The hope is that having year round demand would encourage domestic development and stabilized prices.

There is no doubt that a shift to natural gas is just trading one fossil fuel for another and won't last forever. But it switches it from foreign to domestic and buys a little time to do better. We have to start somewhere.

CNG vehicles

Here is a source that claims that a comparable CNG vechicle should produce 89% of the CO2 that gasoline would have.http://www.triplepundit.com/pages/askpablo-clean-natural-gas-002330.phpThis source claims you can improve mileage by 15% of a gasoline car by following good maintenance.http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/automakers-intr.htmlSo a CNG vehicle in general will produce "a little" less CO2 but not more than gasoline. The amount of CO2 produced by both is still quite a bit. There are other emission benefits to CNG mentioned in the first article.

Many of these places have plans for alternatives some of them include CNG.UPS: http://www.sustainability.ups.com/environmental/fuel/ground.html#fleet_overviewFed Ex: http://about.fedex.designcdt.com/corporate_responsibility/the_environment/alternative_energy/cleaner_vehiclesUSPS: http://www.usps.com/green/innovation.htmMilitary: http://www.military.com/news/article/us-military-launches-alternate-fuel-push.html?col=1186032310810

Wind

Wind is highlighted because it is cheaper at the present time. The focus of the plan is easiest to scale up immediately. It should not be considered a dig at other alternatives. At some point the best wind resources will be tapped (as the best hydro have been for a long time). Then it is time to really push for the next alternative for mass deployment. In the mean time the remaining alternatives still need to be supported with research and pilot support.

Wind turbines can cause bird kills, bat kills, and decreased rainfall for miles downwind behind a wind farm. The bird kill and rainfall are old issues which have been mitigated by later wind installations. Since those are two solvable issues, anyone putting up a wind turbine has to take that in consideration or face legal issues. I haven't seen field application on the bat issue which does not mean someone isn't working on that.

Related to the plan

Road Taxes

There is two main categories of road taxes ... big trucks and carsBig trucks tend to hurt the road more which is why diesel is taxed more heavily than gasoline.Big trucks also have their odometers read often both at the cab and the trailer. Tacking on a mileage based fee may not be so complicated there.For cars a flat yearly fee is probably the best way to go."But he drives more than me!"If you drive 12,000 a year in a 12/mpg vehicle you pay about $400 in taxes currently.If you drive 3,600 a year in a 36/mpg vehicle you pay about $40.If you drive 36,000 a year in a 12/mpg vehicle you pay about $1200.So if the tax was a flat $400 (assuming that is enough for the roads), you would be losing $360. $360 is a lot for some and not a big deal for others. So have the amount paid recorded on state and federal tax. Fairness or unfairness can be worked out with credits and exemptions.I still believe there should be a use tax on gasoline and diesel to discourage it's use.

Gasoline Taxes

Taxes on average currently run about 40 cents. The federal part of that is about 18.4 cents.At about $4 a gallon "summer gas tax breaks" were discussed.A tight keep it at $5.00 would provide no incentive for prices to decrease.You have to assume that the tax is based on an average cost over a year or so and is adjusted only a set amount of times a year automatically.With recent prices the scale would be something like:$5 - zero tax$4 - normal tax$3 - double tax ( 40 - 80 cents depending if all adopt that scale)$2 - triple tax ( .60 - 1.20 )$1 - quad tax ( .80 - 1.60 )(the actual scale would have to be a formula of some sort)This pushes prices to around $3 - $4 which is uncomfortable enough for people to think twice about gasoline. It would have to be adjusted from time to time for inflation and to not bankrupt the federal highway system which is why there is any tax at all on gas.Where would the extra taxes go? Alternative energy? - Possibly ... 9,668,844,788,980.66 national debt? - heh .. ya right .... Pork? - Most likelyBut it is not a point of where the tax goes as to what it does. It makes gasoline use hurt a little to remind us that we need to go on a gas diet.

Oil Tax

(The gasoline tax above would have a more targeted effect)

Some kind of tax for oil in general should be linked to the average price of oil over a year period and then possibly increasing over time. Using similar numbers to yours...... in the first year:if the average is $125+ the tax should be $0 (We need relief)if the average is $100+ the tax should be $1.25if the average is $75+ the tax should be $2.50if the average is $50+ the tax should be $5 (we have paid much more)Then in the following years the amounts increase by some fashion. The law should not expire but may need to be adjusted now and again.The average of the prior year should be recalculated each month. The commodities markets will be able to adjust. It would have to be implemented with some lead time.In this way it adjusts to the situation month to month without debate. Expensive oil is painful but cheap oil is bad like heroine.

Unrelated / local

Geothermal Heat Pump

A county of a reasonable size could buy and operate the equipment (or bid out the work) to build standard vertical trenches. (The standard part would have to be given some thought). Citizens would pay for the standard piping (again that would have to be worked out) but not the install of the piping.If the list grew too large then bidding could begin but even if it was all done for free it doesn't seem that big of a hit to a city budget to keep one set of equipment in operation near year round weather permitting.People could get this work done and declare their property "geo-ready". That would allow more HVAC shops to participate without having to deal with the digging part.

Nuclear

Due to bad local experience with non-energy nuclear by the government it just simply won't happen here.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernald_Feed_Materials_Production_CenterIt was a rather large and secret mess that went public in a bad way a long time ago. It is now a scary a legend. It is also a public park ... one that took millions to build. Again ... it had nothing to do with a nuclear energy plant.The closest we got to nuclear energy washttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_H._Zimmer_Power_StationAnother bad memory for people. The most expensive coal plant every built.

CNG Buses

I was going to suggest that locally we look into switching. However we switched to biodiesel years ago. ( http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2002/10/18/loc_kybuses18.html )I hope they have some provision for the many districts that have already converted to natural gas or alternate fuel.

New Adminstration Building

Asked my county for some details on the new administration building. There is a bit of a rush to get it open. Just want to make sure that we gave a thought to energy use.

Build here. Build now.

Suggested to the local economic development group that the next few years would be a good time to focus on alternative energy.

Where does my yard waste go?

Looking at the local waste management plan I can't tell where yard waste goes around here.

On page 14 item 4 it lists that yardwaste is diverted.

On page 16 item 6 it mentions there is no composting.

I had just assumed it was being composted.

Biochar may be a larger improvement than I thought.

Is anyone already working on Biochar?

Asked the local convervation district for information on biochar use.

Biochar yahoo group

Click to join biochar

Joined the biochar yahoo group today.

Thanks Erich

We have wind?

I'm a bit skeptical but adding 2 sites to the Kentucky MESONET network is something to pursue even if we don't find that we have a good wind resources this far north.

Thanks for mentioning it Seth.

PickensPlan

View my page on PickensPlan

So I've joined PickensPlan...

What does the PickenPlan mean to Northern Kentucky?

We have very little in the way of local Wind Power, but, if coal continues it's recent rise in price it may become economical to import Wind power to the area. In a battle between remote Wind and remote coal, Wind wins. Either way our high 90% local reliance on coal is drawing to a close. Even though we are not an ideal place for solar it may become cost competitive with remote Wind. It will even make the spare energy from Biochar attractive.

On the natural gas part of the plan. We have local understanding of it. We had gaslight streets before electric was common. Many of us still use it to heat our homes. The fact that we burn it on the inside of our houses venting the exhaust to the open air outside demonstrates how clean it is. It's not as clean as solar or wind but it beats coal, wood, and gasoline hands down for clean.

"Since I have natural gas in the house would I be filling up at home?" If you really want to, yes. But the cost of installation of the pump may not be worth it. However even though to my knowledge we have not one natural gas filling station in the area they can be set up quickly since the gas pipes run just about everywhere in the area.

Now this means that we have a new competitor for the natural gas that heats our home and water. Until the last couple of years using natural gas for home and water heating has been the cheap way. A combination of the world using more of it and a many new natural gas plants increased the price. If our energy hungry cars start eating the supply I would assume that we will not return to a time where natural gas is cheaper than electric. Also considering that electric is being squeezed by coal prices and pollution policies it looks like many more of us will be looking into passive solar heating.

This will make local biochar more valuable as the syngas produced in it's creation is being used by the local utility and may function in natural gas vehicles as well.

Either way the time when these decisions will need to be addressed will be within the next few years.

College Sun

Asked about solar at the local university. The local power company offers net metering for up to 15kw. A few parking garages went up over the last year or so on campus. Possibly an opportunity for solar on them. The stats for a 1.92kw system on a roof at a local zoo.

Peak Coal

We are far from hitting peak coal there are plenty of reserves.

HOWEVER

The spot prices for coal have gone up by well over 150% depending on where you draw your baseline.

"OMG! We use almost all coal here! My bill is going to go up by 150%!"

No.

Energy companies negotiated contacts for multiple years.
They normally get better than spot prices especially when the price has not been high for multiple years.
Only a part of their costs come from purchasing the fuel.
That 150% is only for Appalachia (yes our local coal).

HOWEVER

I am going to make several generous assumptions.

1) Buying coal is 20% of all the costs for getting power to you.
2) The contracts are five years in length. 20% of them will expire.
3) The energy company can get a price that only represents 20% of the 150% in this short coal price peak.

150% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 1.2%

"Great no problem!"

No.

These are generous assumptions and we will not know until the energy company asks for an increase (which takes a long time to get).

And...

There is normal inflation of everything from employees, to vehicle fuel, to steel. The price of coal is guessed to fall way off of this peak (as China and everyone else uses more). So, really this is the absolute lowest increase.

That's the first year.

Let's say they can keep getting that same price.

Year 1: 1.2%
Year 2: 2.4% (Q: Why? A: One of those 20% above has changed to 40% since another year of contracts expired.
Year 3: 3.6%
Year 4: 4.8%
Year 5: 6%

Let's run another scenario...

1) Buying coal is 25% of all the costs for getting power to you.
2) The contracts are three years in length. 33% of them will expire.
3) The energy company can get a price that only represents 50% of the 150% in this short coal price peak. (That is like getting something at "40% off", how often does that even happen?)

150% * 25% * 33% * 50% = 6+%

Year 1: 0% (The year is spent in filing, lawsuits and media coverage)
Year 2: 6+%
Year 3: 12+%
Year 4+: 18+% (only three years worth of contracts)

Again even this is assuming that
1) Coal stabilizes at 70% of it's current price (this may get better)
2) CO2 legislation does not add costs
3) No other costs (employees, vehicles, inflation)

My recommendation is to update shelved renewable projects plans with an extra 0%/6%/12%/18% assumption of energy costs and look at the pay back period.

By the time you go though the process of planning, approval, bidding and actually paying someone for your renewable project you will have harder evidence of what the actual "coal" costs will be.

HOWEVER

There is coal from other regions that is cheaper. Now getting tons of coal remotely. Possibly it would be better to burn it there and just send the electric? Maybe getting wind and solar from afar will come into fashion.

Ask an expert

Decided to ask local expertise what their thoughts are on the best solar for NKY.

Will Biochar work here?

Asked for advice how to start investigating Biochar from the local cooperative extension.

Biochar

For purposes of this discussion Biochar is a type of charcoal that when added to soil can promote plant growth in many ways. It remains in the soil for many years.



Normal burning (with oxygen) produces CO2. Natural decay of plants releases CO2 slowly (but if your composting at least you get something out of it). Pyrolysis (making biochar/heating in the absence of oxygen) release significantly less CO2, dramatically decreases slow CO2 releases, and provides additional benefits when added to soil.



You could go out get a metal barrel and make your own. This is a alternative if the smoke and soot generated will not bother the neighbours.



There are several more complicated methods of Pyrolysis.



Locally we need to find and select and select a process that balances:

• low emissions (no soot or toxins)


• favors biochar over syngas and bio-oil


• is flexible for highly varying inputs

Any extra syngas and bio-oil needs to be used. A possible interested party would be Duke Energy who has experience with syngas and has an oil generator locally.

Local sources of biomass:

• Agricultural waste
• yard waste (already collected)
• Bush honeysuckle (a woody local invasive plant)

This change should be compared to the current composting of biomass performed locally by Rumpke (who also has experience in selling syngas)

Suggestions

Now one cannot just run out and build a power plant, build a refinery, get utilities rate changes. All that is handled though the KYPublic Service Commission. Among the many things mentioned in the Electric Utility Regulation and Energy Policy in Kentucky are some passing statements mentioning that they are on a wait-and-see strategy on carbon issues. Basically it is a national issue and you can't really react before the federal regulations change. Those regulation will most likely change next year regardless of the presidential outcome.

So until then....

Renewable and Conservation Industry Property Tax Abatement

The local counties should consider property tax abatements for companies involved in energy conservation and renewable energy to attract new companies to the area. Consideration should be given existing companies as well. The structure of this has to be well thought out since many companies that provide these services are involved in other things outside the scope of the purposed abatement. These industries should provide years of local employment as the carbon issue causes additional regulations.

Local investigation of renewables

• How well would biochar work in local soils?
• What are the outputs (emissions, energy, waste) of flash pyrolysis?
• Are thin film solar a better option this far north?

Federal (much of which will have to wait for the next administration)

• What is the cap and trade plan?
• Provide an analysis of transporting wind energy to this region as compared to local solar. (A comparison to coal can be made with existing data)
• What is the plan for sub critical reactors to the ton years of waste.
• Please continue to support fusion.
• Consider aiding in the planning of renewables in countries with lowest per capita CO2 emissions.

Local Situation

This region is a major importer of energy. The majority of electrical energy is derived from coal. The majority of transportation is derived from oil. What heating isn't done with electric is done with natural gas.

We also have little in the way of local resources.

For fossil sources...

• The coal is shipped in from hundreds of miles away.
• The natural gas is pipped in also from miles away. (There is some landfill gas used locally)
• The liquid fossil fuels are also delivered and/or piped in.

For renewable resources...

• The 1% from hyrdoelectric is about as much as we will get. Even though we are near a major river damming to a point of usefulness would make the region a lake with a few islands.
• For large geothermal the local thickness of earth's crust will make this one of the last places to be able to take advantage of this. (Although heat pumps make as much if not more sense here as anywhere else)
• The available wind energy is also low. It's not just the fuels we use that causes the air quality problems here. It's the lack of wind refreshing the local valleys.
• The sun does shine here on a regular basis but we are fairly far north which reduces the amount we receive (Although solar water heating makes sense here)
• On the biomass/biofuels this has always been a good farming region so all of those solutions apply here.

The local priority is:

1. energy conservation (heat pumps , solar water heating , better lighting and insulation)
2. biomass/biofuels (biochar being on the top of that list)
3. solar (thin film solutions are active at lower light levels)
4. coal (since we can't stop using it anytime soon. IGCC may be a option until we can)
5. nuclear (unlikely given we have none locally now and past local experience has been negative. But that aside sub critical reactors are worth exploration.)

The need for continued support of research is a given which is why it's not on the list. The list would not exist without research.

How

Limiting this to my opinions would not get very much actually done.

The plan is to:

• seek more insight from education institutions, businesses, and government
• active request plans be made by education institutions, businesses, and government
• document this journey here so that you can join me locally or use it as an example to act in your region

Why

As mentioned already...

The carbon issue gets a little stronger each day and regardless of who wins the presidential election both have mentioned cap and trade systems.

In addition by my estimate 98% of our energy locally comes from coal.

So (as mentioned before)...

Even if you do not believe that greenhouse gases cause global warming you can at least admit that economic activities that depend on high greenhouse gas emissions are at risk due to a global consensus on this issue.

In other words...

The rest of the nation and/or world will in very short order cause this to become a bigger issue locally. The thing to do is to either give into the change and begin to change locally or fight the change. If you want to fight the change fell free. I will be going with the flow so that in case you fail we won't be unprepared.

On a personal note...

The "Why" for me is to stop just complaining and commenting and actually get some action going.

Where

Northern Kentucky (NKY) since:

• The counties tend to work closely together on issues
• For the most part we are serviced by the same energy company, waste management company, and water district
• We are in the same state
• Greater Cincinnati is a bit too large to focus on
• Focusing on just Campbell county or Alexandria would deny common things that could be done near here

This is not to say that global, national, and Greater Cincinnati topics will not be discussed. Northern Kentucky is just the right size to focus on and the right place since it's where I am from.

When

Now ... sort of

The local coal plants and farms existed before I did. Those along with economic factors cannot be changed without careful thought and sustained effort.

The carbon issue gets a little stonger each day and regardless of who wins the presidential election both have mentioned cap and trade systems.

What

Carbon ...

Specifically avoiding some of the addition to carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere by promoting techniques such as Biochar, IGCC, and Subcritical reactors.

There is of course other greenhouse gasses and much debate about global warming. Even if you do not believe that greenhouse gases cause global warming you can at least admit that economic activities that depend on high greenhouse gas emissions are at risk due to a global consensus on this issue and that change in these areas cannot happen overnight.

There are also many other societal issues that are just as if not more important that this. I will leave those issues to others and concentrate on this one.

Who

I'm a middle aged computer information systems professional.

Q: What expertise does this give me to comment on the issues I do?
A: None. I am a hobbyist on these issues. Some people know professional athletic statics and strategies where as I like to read up and discuss these issues. As such I'm not affiliated with any agency public or private.

As far as politics I'm a independent moderate. If I had to choose you could put me down as a "practical liberal" rather than a compassionate conservative. Government is like a strong spice. For some dishes it should be used with vigor. In others it should be used but only sparingly. And for most it has no business at all.

I am also not asking for donations of any type. If you like what I write donate to what I use.

Who, What, When, Where, Why and How

Rather than jumping in with a bunch of random ideas things will begin with a little organization. Let's see how long I stick with this.

Who
What
When
Where
Why
How